Posts Tagged ‘ pips ’

One Down


As I’m in blog mode I might as well post today’s result. A nice win early on and I’m glad the winning trade is out-of-the-way as the UK budget is released later today and god only knows what effect it will have on the market. I don’t believe the two timeframe method would have had this trade as I didn’t see a corresponding signal on 10 or 15 min timeframe. I took +22 as I felt if the down move came, it would test S2 as indicated by TESS and it was nice to be proven right with a fair-sized bounce coming off S2. A maximum of 28 pips was available after spread. Only 3 more of these and it’ll into profit for the week! Gulp!

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Drama


A day doesn’t seem complete without drama when trading and yesterday was absolutely no different. No sooner had I posted my latest post that a couple of TUFXP GG trades come my way. Decisions, decisions…. I took them as I keep telling myself that this particular strategy will turn around soon and start making the gains it did so well throughout last year. Wrong. The same as the previous day, both lost and giving me the ever-present sinking feeling and wondering why I didn’t stop after such a decent start. Yet again though, another trade signalled and this time it did the business it fine style and a nice run on EURUSD took me back to where I was before all of the drama. So, absolutely nothing gained and a lot of head scratching for nothing. I can’t help but think though that some day very soon that it will all click together. The task of researching the SAW method is going to take a lot longer than I originally thought as I have so much data to go through but I reckon there will be something of use to come out of it. It’s keeping me busy in the days anyway.

I know a few readers are racing/sports bettors also and racing has long been my passion way before I ever discovered what Forex was. I’m running a thread on a forum where I’m posting all of my lays for horse racing on the UK markets. This is an exercise in discipline and also a chance to try out a new method I’m working on. So far the results have been extremely impressive in the short window that I’ve been posting and it’s nice to have some stability with the racing. I just need to replicate my racing results to my trading and I’ll be a happy man again. If you want to check out my progress, you can do so here.

Pleasant Surprise


It’s been an okay week so far, yesterday was a little disappointing with a couple of near misses and missed opportunities.  The GG  TUFXP method operates on a 3 bar qualifying window, so it has 3 candles on whichever timeframe the signal came on to qualify. A GU trade expired by a matter of seconds then went on to qualify and hit the profit and it certainly was tempting to keep the order open but this month for me is all about following my rules and keeping to the plan.

A pleasant surprise came from TUFXP this week with their upgrade to version 2. It’s going to be released to the public pretty soon I imagine. The upgrades are small but meaningful with a couple of very helpful additions. If you’ve bought ATM-FX and already have TUFXP, you’ll be a little annoyed as now you can trade the ATM strategy using TESS software. It’s still lacking some upgrades which I’d of liked to of seen but I’ll see what happens over the following months.

That’s about it for now, hope everyone is having a pip filled week.

Lost..


I cannot begin to tell you the day I’ve had. Remarkable doesn’t even cover it. Yesterday was a whirlwind also. I literally am lost for words..

Yesterday was a ‘nearly’ day. Several trades were almost perfect but ended up being stopped out by the finest margins. I had set an order to open at 1.5290 on GBPUSD, around 5 pips beneath the support that had been in place for nearly 36 hrs. My thinking was if/when it broke, it’d fall nicely to a minimum of 1.5250. I usually like to operate on a decent risk:reward factor so set my SL at 25 pips, so 1.5315. I trundled off to bed feeling ok about things but also weighed down by recent events. I woke up to a losing trade as GU tested 1.5290 and retraced to 1.5320 before finally dropping sharply overnight and continuing the downtrend today. A disappointing result but in a way, I was pleased to see the theory worked.

After evalating results from the TUFXP method, GG, I decided I would continue, but on a smaller risk. The numbers don’t lie. I’ve tracked results since April 09 and it hasn’t had a single losing month, not many strategies can lay claim to that. Yes, performance has dropped off in January and February and the swings have been bigger than usual but profit is profit. Through my own recklessness I have made a mediocre position worse than it should be. Looking at Myfxbook figures, I am down substantially on GBPUSD, by far the worst pair I trade, results wise. Looking at the paper results, I should be no worse than breakeven; so where have all those losses come from? Greed, fear, pointless trades, bad discipline, chasing to name a few. Having myfxbook really is an invaluable tool and really does hit home. It shows weaknesses in your trading. I can’t hide from the truth and the fact I’ve cocked up a lot on GU. I can blame it on x, y and z but the real matter of fact is, I did the trades and I need to realise I am wasting good opportunities to make good gains.

Today got off to a hideous start with EURJPY messing about in a tight range and TUFXP triggering me into two trades that lost. -50 on the board before I’ve had lunch. I also tried to get cute with a GU trade and instead of taking 30 pips, I ended up with nothing. Talk about breaking my own rules! Where this awful habbit of greed has come from, I’m not sure but I refuse to let my weaknesses get the better of me. A couple of slack, nothing trades cost me another 40 pips and I’m staring at a big losing day wondering if I should take a few days off and evaluate the whole situation and trading.

Then I got insanely lucky. I was in two TUFXP trades pre US data release and I can only thank every lucky star that the news plunged big time and helped me rescue an awful situation. Relying on luck is not something I should have to be doing but today I’ll take it and run.

With what’s being going on outside of trading and having a long, hard look at things, I’ve realised several important things. I have a golden opportunity to make something of trading, I have the strategies and on occassions, the skill required to go with it. However, I also realise, I have acted poorly on numerous occasions, and this is my final warning to myself. If I don’t stick to my own rules, then I shouldn’t be spending 9-10 hrs a day trying to make it work. So, for the final time; sink or swim?!

On a final note, I do actually have some meaningful content which I want to post up later or tomorrow left by Steve regarding ATM-FX. Thanks for the info Steve, much appreciated.

Slide continues


The landslide continues today with another losing day registered on the boards.  GBPUSD got me off to a bad start and then TUFXP simply added to my problems with yet another loss. The method in question is the method first detailed on the cash-master site. I spent hours and hours of research on this particular method and have used it consistently since July last year. However, so far this year results have been dismal and EURJPY is currently on a 5 trade losing sequence. I’ve no choice but to reduce liability on these trades as it’s causing me serious grief. This is an extremely tough time right now and I’m finding it hard to muster the enthusiasm or energy to keep fighting.

I useful website I thought I’d make note of is this decent correlation website. I was reminded of it by Terrance who left a comment in regard to the lack of correlation between pairs of late. It’s useful when looking at several pairs. You can find the website here. There a couple of other decent Forex websites I’ve been meaning to put up and I’ll get round to that this weekend I think.

Hope you’re managing to gain a few pips, unlike my good self!!!

Confidence Issue


So far this week, all I’ve managed to do is repeat last weeks dose of bad discipline and other shocking efforts of trading. What makes it all the more galling is the fact if I had stuck to my strategies, I’d be doing just fine this week. My ability to control trades has apparently jumped out the window along with my confidence. Trading with low confidence is always a bad mindset and it’s sorely hurt me this week. I’ve exited several trades which were in loss positions simply due to me believing they would continue to edge further into loss. They didn’t and ended up winning.

This is a critical stage for me and my trading as I need to regain my confidence if I’m ever going to get back to previous levels of achievement. I have the plan just not the right psychology at the moment.

I’m hoping this huge rut that I’m currently in will end and I can start enjoying my trading again. I’m not a quitter for better or worse so my aim is to continue and make the best of what I can. Apologies for the downbeat nature of the last few posts, I’ll try and bring some good news soon…

Also; has no one taken the risk test? Would of liked to of seen a few scores.

Moderation


Last week couldn’t have been any more up and down if it had tried! An absolute bananas week summed up nicely by the price action that unfolded after the NFP release. EURJPY rocketed down for nearly 100 pips before engaging full thrust and reversed the full amount and then went long for a fair few pips. Thursday and Friday was an unbelievable day for the Yen pairs and on Thursday afternoon I’ve never quite seen movement like it with EURJPY and GBPJPY moving in 10 pip segments. The struggles of Greece, Spain and Ireland are severely taking their toll on the Euro. It will be a very interesting next few weeks for the Euro and how it fares.

I’m concentrating hard this week on keeping errors to a minimum and hopefully it will be a much smoother week…famous last words!

Unfortunately I had to moderate and delete a comment yesterday from Jon, a previous contributor who I mentioned in the last post. I welcome all constructive criticism but I will not accept rudeness and outright flaming. I am an open and honest trader, hence the reason for having the myfxbook link in my blog. I’ll enjoy completing my challenge and enjoy the fact you said it’d never happen. I’m not going to entertain any further comments from people wishing to be rude, that is not the point of this blog.