I cannot begin to tell you the day I’ve had. Remarkable doesn’t even cover it. Yesterday was a whirlwind also. I literally am lost for words..
Yesterday was a ‘nearly’ day. Several trades were almost perfect but ended up being stopped out by the finest margins. I had set an order to open at 1.5290 on GBPUSD, around 5 pips beneath the support that had been in place for nearly 36 hrs. My thinking was if/when it broke, it’d fall nicely to a minimum of 1.5250. I usually like to operate on a decent risk:reward factor so set my SL at 25 pips, so 1.5315. I trundled off to bed feeling ok about things but also weighed down by recent events. I woke up to a losing trade as GU tested 1.5290 and retraced to 1.5320 before finally dropping sharply overnight and continuing the downtrend today. A disappointing result but in a way, I was pleased to see the theory worked.
After evalating results from the TUFXP method, GG, I decided I would continue, but on a smaller risk. The numbers don’t lie. I’ve tracked results since April 09 and it hasn’t had a single losing month, not many strategies can lay claim to that. Yes, performance has dropped off in January and February and the swings have been bigger than usual but profit is profit. Through my own recklessness I have made a mediocre position worse than it should be. Looking at Myfxbook figures, I am down substantially on GBPUSD, by far the worst pair I trade, results wise. Looking at the paper results, I should be no worse than breakeven; so where have all those losses come from? Greed, fear, pointless trades, bad discipline, chasing to name a few. Having myfxbook really is an invaluable tool and really does hit home. It shows weaknesses in your trading. I can’t hide from the truth and the fact I’ve cocked up a lot on GU. I can blame it on x, y and z but the real matter of fact is, I did the trades and I need to realise I am wasting good opportunities to make good gains.
Today got off to a hideous start with EURJPY messing about in a tight range and TUFXP triggering me into two trades that lost. -50 on the board before I’ve had lunch. I also tried to get cute with a GU trade and instead of taking 30 pips, I ended up with nothing. Talk about breaking my own rules! Where this awful habbit of greed has come from, I’m not sure but I refuse to let my weaknesses get the better of me. A couple of slack, nothing trades cost me another 40 pips and I’m staring at a big losing day wondering if I should take a few days off and evaluate the whole situation and trading.
Then I got insanely lucky. I was in two TUFXP trades pre US data release and I can only thank every lucky star that the news plunged big time and helped me rescue an awful situation. Relying on luck is not something I should have to be doing but today I’ll take it and run.
With what’s being going on outside of trading and having a long, hard look at things, I’ve realised several important things. I have a golden opportunity to make something of trading, I have the strategies and on occassions, the skill required to go with it. However, I also realise, I have acted poorly on numerous occasions, and this is my final warning to myself. If I don’t stick to my own rules, then I shouldn’t be spending 9-10 hrs a day trying to make it work. So, for the final time; sink or swim?!
On a final note, I do actually have some meaningful content which I want to post up later or tomorrow left by Steve regarding ATM-FX. Thanks for the info Steve, much appreciated.
Contrasts
I received two very contrasting comments yesterday, one left here and the other via email. Both of them had an effect on me and I’ve certainly given them a thought or three. Jon said that I shouldn’t be live trading yet alone trying to sell a Forex e-book due to crazy drawdown and risk sizing etc. Yes,I can see his point but I have always made it clear that I am trading TUFXP and my strategies together and using my own risk management. In my e-book I advise no more than 3% risk and as it’s been tested for the best part of 5 weeks by Cash-master blog, the results are encouraging. I’ll continue to update them monthly even when the trial has finished. I understand there is a reflection in my trading in my e-book but that shouldn’t take away from what is I believe, a good solid foundation for Forex strategies.
Just before I went to bed I thought I’d check my emails and found a very sincere and honest email from Andy. I’ll paste his email below:
Hi John!
Been reading your blog everyday recently – really sorry to hear about the tough days you’ve endured recently – especially yesterday. Be glad if I had five quid for every time I’ve felt like you obviously do after doing something really daft myself – I know that ‘gutted’ feeling all too well.
However, the reason for writing is just to say thank you for your honesty in these recent blogs – it’s never easy to confess your mistakes to the world but, as far as I am concerned, it’s refreshing to know there are other fallible human beings out there making the same mistakes who, nevertheless, hang on in there and don’t give up.
Good on you sir – may you soon succeed beyond your dreams…
It was a welcome sign of friendliness and understanding and I’m glad to have some great readers. The whole point of this blog is to help me along my journey of mastering these incredibly tough markets and if I have a bad day I certainly want to express my disappointment and frustration. I am human and will always make mistakes but if I can learn one thing from them then I consider it a lesson learned.
So thank you to Andy and Jon for some thought-provoking comments, I appreciate it.
Dubai
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