Archive for February, 2010

Lost..


I cannot begin to tell you the day I’ve had. Remarkable doesn’t even cover it. Yesterday was a whirlwind also. I literally am lost for words..

Yesterday was a ‘nearly’ day. Several trades were almost perfect but ended up being stopped out by the finest margins. I had set an order to open at 1.5290 on GBPUSD, around 5 pips beneath the support that had been in place for nearly 36 hrs. My thinking was if/when it broke, it’d fall nicely to a minimum of 1.5250. I usually like to operate on a decent risk:reward factor so set my SL at 25 pips, so 1.5315. I trundled off to bed feeling ok about things but also weighed down by recent events. I woke up to a losing trade as GU tested 1.5290 and retraced to 1.5320 before finally dropping sharply overnight and continuing the downtrend today. A disappointing result but in a way, I was pleased to see the theory worked.

After evalating results from the TUFXP method, GG, I decided I would continue, but on a smaller risk. The numbers don’t lie. I’ve tracked results since April 09 and it hasn’t had a single losing month, not many strategies can lay claim to that. Yes, performance has dropped off in January and February and the swings have been bigger than usual but profit is profit. Through my own recklessness I have made a mediocre position worse than it should be. Looking at Myfxbook figures, I am down substantially on GBPUSD, by far the worst pair I trade, results wise. Looking at the paper results, I should be no worse than breakeven; so where have all those losses come from? Greed, fear, pointless trades, bad discipline, chasing to name a few. Having myfxbook really is an invaluable tool and really does hit home. It shows weaknesses in your trading. I can’t hide from the truth and the fact I’ve cocked up a lot on GU. I can blame it on x, y and z but the real matter of fact is, I did the trades and I need to realise I am wasting good opportunities to make good gains.

Today got off to a hideous start with EURJPY messing about in a tight range and TUFXP triggering me into two trades that lost. -50 on the board before I’ve had lunch. I also tried to get cute with a GU trade and instead of taking 30 pips, I ended up with nothing. Talk about breaking my own rules! Where this awful habbit of greed has come from, I’m not sure but I refuse to let my weaknesses get the better of me. A couple of slack, nothing trades cost me another 40 pips and I’m staring at a big losing day wondering if I should take a few days off and evaluate the whole situation and trading.

Then I got insanely lucky. I was in two TUFXP trades pre US data release and I can only thank every lucky star that the news plunged big time and helped me rescue an awful situation. Relying on luck is not something I should have to be doing but today I’ll take it and run.

With what’s being going on outside of trading and having a long, hard look at things, I’ve realised several important things. I have a golden opportunity to make something of trading, I have the strategies and on occassions, the skill required to go with it. However, I also realise, I have acted poorly on numerous occasions, and this is my final warning to myself. If I don’t stick to my own rules, then I shouldn’t be spending 9-10 hrs a day trying to make it work. So, for the final time; sink or swim?!

On a final note, I do actually have some meaningful content which I want to post up later or tomorrow left by Steve regarding ATM-FX. Thanks for the info Steve, much appreciated.

Difficulties.


Trading continues to be difficult for me with any gains quickly wiped out putting me in a loss for the day for each day this week. I’m definitely noticing that I’m exiting trades in poor positions; I’m exiting profitable trades too early and letting bad trades run when I have  a good sense that they’ll hit the full SL. A couple of trades have hit their SL by less than 1 pip then reversed and hit the profit which is always highly frustrating.

Jon left a truly helpful comment the other day; ‘I told you this before but you thought I was being rude, it simply does not work. Trade another strategy.’ He’s talking about TUFXP. I have two problems with this comment…firstly he didn’t say TUFXP doesn’t work and secondly, the comment is of zero use to me.

Family problems continue to worry me and right now trading really is on the back foot. Hopefully a bit of normality will resume soon. Keeping my chin up either way so fingers crossed my luck will turn around soon.

Same, same.


Right now I want to throw the piece of junk that is TUFXP out the window.  After making slow but steady progress late last week, all of it has been undone in fell swoop in a day’s work by TUFXP GG. I really am lost for words. I busted my balls to get to the position I was at the end of last week only to smash it to pieces today. Same shit, new week. I’ve decided I’m going to cut the GG method completely out of my trading as it’s ruining any chance of making forward progress and it’s also really getting my spirits down, so from now on, I’m doing without it.

Also received some bad family news over the weekend and a lot of changes are happening for me right now and it’ll be tough to concentrate fully on trading. This year sure hasn’t gone to plan as of yet! I’ll end it here for now as I need to go and walk off some steam.

Hope you’ve managed to have a profitable week..

No pictures..


Yesterday had the look of a horror show for a while as the early part of my day was nothing short of awful. It started off with my morning trade getting to within 4 pips of my target before reversing and stopping me out at breakeven. It went on to hit the stop-loss so at least I avoided an early loss which was a good positive to take out. Drama wasn’t far away though with TUFXP signalling me into a trade around 20 minutes before the UK unemployment rate came out. The trade was around 10 pips profit pre release and the news spiked down nicely and hit the target on TESS so at this point I’m thinking ‘lovely’. However, a glance at my broker shows me I haven’t been filled on my take profit!! I spoke to my broker and they said it was down to the fast-moving nature of the news and they cannot gauratanee an order will be filled successfully. More like they fancied slipping me and avoiding me taking a nice win. I exited at -17 which left a very bitter taste in my mouth but sticking to my game plan I tried my best to forget it and move on but not before having a nice little chunter to myself.

Anyway to cut a long story short, some decent late afternoon trades yielded some nice returns and a good profit was made on the day. I remember using the saying ‘no pictures on a scorecard’ when I used to play golf a lot and it brought a wry smile to my face when looking back on the days events. Speaking of golf, I think Westwood has an awesome chance to clinch the Accenture Matchplay but Ogilvy is looking equally good. The days are flying by despite it being an uphill battle and already the end of the month is closing in. I’ve got a lot of work to crack on with which is keeping my boredom levels down nicely.

Eureka!


Wow, reading back the last few posts makes for very depressing reading! I seem to of got into a habit of being a really good moaner when the going gets rough, something that needs to stop right now. Whilst relaxing at home yesterday evening I had several ideas whizzing through my brain and a couple really got my attention. Firstly and most importantly is my outlook on trading. The bottom line is this; the markets will do whatever they want to do, no amount of bitching or crying will fix it or make a trade go in my direction. The solution is to man up and get on with it. Deep down I have the faith and belief in my strategies so just stick to the plan. Self motivation talk over, I also had a great idea to improve one particular strategy that has been bugging me. It’s not going to revolutionize the results but I’m pretty sure it’ll certainly improve the equity curve nicely. All subscribers to my e-book will be getting an email today at some point explaining it more in-depth.

I’ve pulled down the EA that I was testing as while at first glance the results are amazing, the floating equity is a shocker. The EA is called ‘Midas’. It caught my attention whilst browsing the myfxbook systems. It’s certainly not cheap at £97 for the first month then £147 thereafter per month. It comes with a 30 day money back trial so I thought I’d give it a whirl. Upon inspection of the EA, the basics of it is a martingale grid EA. It places trades on a designated pip grid and adds to positions when a target is met. Where it comes brutally unstuck is when a pair trends in particular direction without a pullback or retrace. Whilst I was running aggressive settings, I calculated I would need the best part of £5k to make it worthwhile on standard settings.  I wouldn’t call it a scam but I’m certainly not interested in keeping the EA in my portfolio.

I am also in the process of getting one of strategies converted into an EA and I’m pretty excited about the prospect of it running on auto-pilot for me. It isn’t a particularly hard strategy to trade manually but it is easy to overlook when looking at several other charts at the same time.

I’m staying positive today, no matter what!

Slide continues


The landslide continues today with another losing day registered on the boards.  GBPUSD got me off to a bad start and then TUFXP simply added to my problems with yet another loss. The method in question is the method first detailed on the cash-master site. I spent hours and hours of research on this particular method and have used it consistently since July last year. However, so far this year results have been dismal and EURJPY is currently on a 5 trade losing sequence. I’ve no choice but to reduce liability on these trades as it’s causing me serious grief. This is an extremely tough time right now and I’m finding it hard to muster the enthusiasm or energy to keep fighting.

I useful website I thought I’d make note of is this decent correlation website. I was reminded of it by Terrance who left a comment in regard to the lack of correlation between pairs of late. It’s useful when looking at several pairs. You can find the website here. There a couple of other decent Forex websites I’ve been meaning to put up and I’ll get round to that this weekend I think.

Hope you’re managing to gain a few pips, unlike my good self!!!

Testing


Well, this is really beginning to get to me now. I was looking forward to a fresh week and the chance of making some decent gains but once again, I’ve fallen at the very first hurdle and I’m immediately on the back foot for the week. I cannot express how frustrating this is and try as I might, my positive outlook is diminishing rapidly. How much longer my mental aspect of trading can take of this I’m not sure. One particular strategy on TUFXP is really letting the side down and everyone who trades it is beginning to feel the pinch a little and also the will to continue with it.

It’s psychologically very hard to stay positive when every single week I kick off with a stinker. Perhaps I should avoid Mondays? Not much else to say really, moral is low, bank is low..