Archive for March, 2010

Lost It


I’ve been pretty quiet the last few days as I’ve been quietly going about my business until yesterday arrived. Things were going swimmingly with a steady gain in the early part of the morning and I was pleased with my days work as I knew I’d be looking after my daughter in the afternoon. We hit the mall, had a great time and when I got home I wanted to try SNW out on the US news. I was an hour early so fired up TUFXP. Massive, massive mistake.

I’ve said I’d be dropping the GG method at the end of the month and I so wish it was sooner. Monday gave two losers and Tuesday was a blank. So yesterday was a chance to gain back some losses. It proceeded to fire off 6 straight losers, 4 on GU and 2 on EJ. I took 4 of them as one after the other triggered and almost immediately retraced. This insanity has to stop, as I am blowing all chance of making decent gains by being stubborn and not letting go of a losing method. I refuse to waste any more energy and heartache on such crap. I will continue to use TUFXP but in a completely different manner and this morning was a fresh start and a clean 20 pips made using the new method I’ve been meaning to get stuck into for months.

I am stumped as to why the GG method has ceased to work but 8 straight losers when the risk:reward is only 1:1 just isn’t good enough and no amount of money management can turn it around. I’ll contiunue to track results as it’s been a massive part of my trading for the last year and old habits die-hard of keeping meticulous records.

Australian retail sales hit my trigger with SNW but another no fill meant a very good opportunity was missed but from reading various other SNW users comments, they also didn’t get filled so at least it isn’t just me. 3 more news releases left in the week with the obvious big one being NFP.

I am crushed this month has been ruined by 1 hr of mentalist work but I will fight on and try to move onwards and upwards.

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End Of Week


Another early finish with trading today and pleased to have got out with a few pips profit, certainly not an easy day with GBPUSD being very up/down/up/down. It has been a successful week in terms of % gain and whilst a few areas need tightening up still, I am pleased with how this month has turned out. I said at the start of the month that it would be a make or break month and so far its been okay. I need another solid month next month to get my confidence fully back so I’ll continue to tread carefully and try to minimise the mistakes I’m making. Looking at myfxbook stats, I’ve clawed back a good amount on GBPUSD this month but still a lot of work to be done before it’s respectable.

Racing wise it has been a very tough week so far going into the weekend. Last week ended with an 8% gain but so far this week has been miserable. Down 12% with 3 days to go. If I can manage a good day today I might be able to squeeze a breakeven week but with the run I’ve had this week I’m not overly sure. However, like Forex, racing can be extremely tough and bad weeks often happen when laying horses to lose. You need an incredibly high strike rate and lay at respectable odds to make it profitable. Anyway, racing isn’t far away so I best get set up and ready to rumble.

Dubai World Cup tomorrow evening and a massive $10 million World Cup race, it does however make me wonder why they can’t afford to pay the contractors who helped build Meydan though?!

Filling


Haven’t felt like blogging too much the last couple of days, spirits are down at the moment with a few things outside of trading and a few things in trading! Confused? Me too.

Yesterday was a bit of a non event with a profit never looking likely and the small loss was fairly acceptable by my standards. I was hoping I could finally get some use out of SNW with the NZD GDP report but with zero deviation and the first time since Sept 08 it was a very uneventful release. Bit annoying waking up at 1.45 AM for nothing but gotta be in it to win it as they say. However, the unthinkable finally happened with the UK retail sales coming out a stonking +1.5% better than expected and I managed to get an order filled. Such was my surprise that my kneejerk reaction was to close almost immediately for +20 pips. A possible 40-50 was available but happy enough with my first result. What I wasn’t happy with was my stance on EURUSD. I had a short open since yesterday evening and I was targeting 1.3275.  EURUSD broke 1.3300 nicely early this morning but I didn’t close as I wanted the full amount, I really should have been happy with +35 and closed out to start the day off with a decent win. However, greed overuled and I left it open right to the SL. A very disappointing result and also a big hit to the confidence.

I’ve had some time to think about GG method and I have finally decided to drop it at the end of the month as it was rightly pointed out, the edge just isn’t there any more. You have 1 win followed by 1 or 2 losers, or vice versa. Times change and you have to adapt to the market to try to stay ahead. Hoping I can finish the month on a positive note and work out where to go from here.

Destined


It’s been a slow and very unspectacular day today with all of my gains coming before 9 AM UK time. I’ve briefly glanced at charts just to make sure I’m not missing the mother of all setups but alas, it has been very calm and boring. Still, if boring means making 6-7% I’m all for it!

I think I’m destined to never get a successful news trade with SNW. Two worthwhile reports today with the GBP CPI y/y and US home sales. CPI missed my trigger by 0.1 but reacted perfectly to the release of 0.1 worse than expected. Then up next was the US existing home sales. I had to go back to Sept 08 to find when it last deviated so little from expectations. It meant a further no trade and with only two further possibilities this week left for a decent trade, time is very much running out. Professional news traders must surely experience the longest dry spells ever! A guy on FPA (forex peace army) who trades it for a living hasn’t had a trade in over 3 weeks! Yikes!

Still, it’s been a profitable day and I’d take them every single day so I guess I’m just a tad frustrated with the news thing as I really was expecting some action during the trial.

Yo-Yo


I must sound like a broken record but it’s been a whirlwind of a Monday already and I feel like I’ve battled a force 10 gale. I didn’t start off particularly well with a loss straight off the bat with TUFXP GG that barely triggered and immediately reversed to the SL. Thankfully a Dubai strategy came to my rescue and got things under control; or so I thought! Whilst setting the TP and SL on the trade, I inadvertently set the TP at 100 pips further away than needed! Just a complete lack of concentration and attention on my behalf and it so very nearly cost me. It made its proper scalp but I was left with an open trade and also a minus position. A tense few hours later, GU finally did decide to break the resistance and I can only thank my lucky stars that GU decided to test that level again. I also made a complete hash of a trade on EJ and it cost me 20 pips which really did annoy me as the trade hadn’t officially triggered. Basically a complete comedy of errors by me. TUFXP GG continues to underperform (broken record again) with 3 losses today and no sign of it returning to form. It will be 3 months since any significant profit has been achieved come the end of the month and I think it might be finally be the final time to knock it on its head. It’s tough knowing when to let a strategy go; do you live in hope it will return to form or cut your losses and run?

Got to try to tighten things up as it could so easily of cost me hundreds of pounds today and that is very alarming. I’ve reprinted my trading plan and I have stuck to the side of one of the monitors so it is always in visual sight.

I had yet another trigger with SNW on Friday afternoon but yet again I was requoted by my broker. I’m going to try a couple of new brokers this week in the hope that I can get filled on these news orders, if not then I’ll have to cancel my monthly subs by the end of the month.

Racing was an up and down weekend also with a booming day on Saturday followed by a miserable day on Sunday but looking back on my stats, an 8% gain on the week was still very pleasing.

Secret News Weapon


An early finish for me today as I’m on babysitting duties for the rest of the day. A pretty decent morning so probably a good idea that I’m finishing as I don’t really want to risk any more pips. I might if I can look at the news releases a little later.

The software I’ve been trying out the last few weeks is called ‘Secret News Weapon’. It claims it can enter you in a trade pre spike and be able to ride the spike as a result of the news. I’ve always been interested in trading news releases as the idea of quick gains appeals to me as I’m sure it does to most people. After receiving my login details I was able to download the software needed to trade news items. I watched the videos necessary to get familiar with the software and it seemed pretty straight forward. The main area of focus is the trigger. This is the deviation from the forecast news item. Using NFP as an example as it always produces a mammoth spike, let’s say it’s forecasted at -30k. I set a trigger of 15. This means if it comes out at -15 or -45 I get entered into a trade. You set up the software so it knows whether to buy or sell depending on the actual number released. So far, so good. You can set your own triggers and be safe in the knowledge that if it deviates enough from the forecasted number, you’ll get entered in the correct direction. Except it never enters. I’ve had 4 news items that have hit my trigger and every time I’ve been requoted by my broker. The news is delivered in 100 milliseconds but this appears to be not quick enough. I will persevere for now though as I’m following a full-time news trader who has also struggled to get filled of late on exactly the same releases. Obviously the key with this software is to find a broker who doesn’t massively widen their spreads pre news and who will offer genuine fills when getting the required trigger.

The support team suggest trying various brokers on demo but that really isn’t going to prove anything as the difference between demo and live is like night and day. You don’t experience requotes or bad fills on demo accounts so until you try it live, you just won’t know if the broker is worthwhile or not.

It’s certainly not cheap either at $299 a month after the initial $69 30 day trial. I’ve got 10 days left before the $299 kicks or I can cancel it. If I can get a decent fill on a trigger then it will pay for it in one trade but so far the first trade has proved illusive. I’ll report back after the trial is over and hopefully I’ll have got a decent trade in!

Finally, to whoever the sad person is who keeps voting each post as very poor.. just how sad are you? If you really don’t enjoy reading the blog then it’s pretty easy to just stop reading, don’t you think? Or do you think it’s clever to keep doing it? Bravo.

Wheels Came Off


Wow, today was the day the proverbial camel’s back was nearly broken. An absolute mountain of trades today and definitely a case of over trading.  TUFXP fired over 7 trades at me today and all in clusters and it was annoying the absolute shit out of me to say the least.Yesterday was the first day of the month where I let my emotions get the better of me and I let it slip big time. I did 3 pointless, half-hearted trades that I tried to reason with. They all lost and cost me an extra £700 for my troubles. The most annoying thing was, that in hindsight, I wasn’t even in a bad spot. I was down less than half a percent for the day but for some reason beyond me, I felt the desire to try to push it and make a profit for the day and push past the £6,000 barrier. Needless to say it didn’t work and I think deep down I knew it wouldn’t. Reckless trading at it’s finest.

I was in all sorts of bother today and statistically speaking, I should have been down around 10% but two awesome trades on EURUSD from very early this morning made sure today wasn’t the disaster it so nearly could have been.

The main question is thus: Why did I push myself yesterday? After all the talking and discipline I’ve tried to put back in my trading, it all fell away for no other reason than to be greedy. It disappoints me and troubles me as to why I still feel the need to act like that. How many long, hard looks do I need before a) I lose it all or b) it finally sinks in. Anyway, it’s late and I’ve still got a ton left I want to chunter on about but I’ll save it for tomorrow..