Confidence Issue

So far this week, all I’ve managed to do is repeat last weeks dose of bad discipline and other shocking efforts of trading. What makes it all the more galling is the fact if I had stuck to my strategies, I’d be doing just fine this week. My ability to control trades has apparently jumped out the window along with my confidence. Trading with low confidence is always a bad mindset and it’s sorely hurt me this week. I’ve exited several trades which were in loss positions simply due to me believing they would continue to edge further into loss. They didn’t and ended up winning.

This is a critical stage for me and my trading as I need to regain my confidence if I’m ever going to get back to previous levels of achievement. I have the plan just not the right psychology at the moment.

I’m hoping this huge rut that I’m currently in will end and I can start enjoying my trading again. I’m not a quitter for better or worse so my aim is to continue and make the best of what I can. Apologies for the downbeat nature of the last few posts, I’ll try and bring some good news soon…

Also; has no one taken the risk test? Would of liked to of seen a few scores.

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    • Austin
    • February 10th, 2010

    John, you’ve just got to get your head back in the game and be positive
    You have a great plan, and have proven to yourself that it works just fine
    Now you have to take your time, stick to the plan, have confidence in it that it works and reap the benefits

    I have faith in you; I hope that you do too

    Since the last time we spoke, I am looking at Ichimoku trading just now – long timeframes, fewer trades and use of intellect and discretion – still learning lots and building up my bank, so only paper trading but so far seems great

    Keep smiling in sunny Do Buy and all the best

    Austin

    • Hi Austin,

      Good to hear from you and thanks for the kind words of encouragement! Best of luck with Ichi, I still haven’t had a proper look at it yet.

    • Andy M, UK
    • February 10th, 2010

    I ended up looking at this blog after reading the London breakout thread on FF so don’t know much about your trading history but how does this last couple of months compare with what you have previously experienced ? I presume with your target of £150k that you’ve had a decent run of profitable months leading up to the start of 2010 ?

    I’m just wondering if you could put it into context if that’s ok ?

    • Hi Andy,

      From June-December I had an extremely good run, mainly due to TUFXP and a couple of other strategies. The idea for the £150k is down to me reasoning that with suitable compounding and the previous year’s results that I should be able to reach that target. However, due to bad trade management and discipline, I’ve forfeited a pretty decent February so far. It’s a long road from here but one I’m determined to master.

    • Vicky
    • February 10th, 2010

    Hi John, just read your blog after having 10 days of really bad self discipline myself which pointlessly lost me money (when I should have been making it), so made me smile not to be the only one. I’m taking myself back to basics now.. follow my strategy, set the stop loss and then sit back and breath. Finish the trade, get up and go away for a minute.
    You’ll get there. I’ll get there. It’s just a bump on the road.
    Vicky

    • Ian
    • February 16th, 2010

    Hi John
    I have been looking at your figures on fxbook and was wondering if the following analysis is helpful.
    As you have 218 trades over 26 days I feel ther are some meaninful statistics available
    Firstly you seem to win about half your trades 113 wins 105 losses
    Your average win was £168 which is approx 3.3% of your original amount.
    I do not know your risk reward ratio but you could have had the following scenarios with typical money management
    Total win £168*113= £18984
    If your trading allowed you to put the stop at 2% namely £100 then risk reward is approx 1.5 (168/100) and assuming you would have had the same numbers of winning and losing trades as you recorded then your losses would be 100*105=£10500 so you would have gained £8484
    If risk reward was approx 1 (168/150) with average loss £150 or 3% then overall gain in the 26 trading days is £3234
    I suspect that your strategies must be good as you have been able to recover from 40% to 20 % drawdrown rapidly so the r/r ratio ahould be decent if you actively control the % loss for each trade
    I think that if my above assumptions are correct you would feel a lot more relaxed with your trading
    Please let me know if my analysis makes sense
    Wishing you all the best
    Ian (UK)

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