Archive for November, 2009

Dark Days for Dubai


Late last week saw some major, major news from Dubai with DP World asking for a 6 month reprieve from their loan repayments. This has huge ramifications for Dubai and the rest of the Gulf region. They decided to make the announcement after the DFM (Dubai Financial Market) had closed for Eid so the major selling of Bank shares and Construction shares will start tomorrow. I personally think DFM will sink to 1,800 or so from its current 2090 level. It will be very interesting to see. It’s also getting a lot of press worldwide with some reports suggesting that if DP World default, it could bring on a double dip recession; strong words indeed. This is also bad news personally as I have interests in a Geotechnical company that is owed a lot of money from Nakheel which is under the DP World umbrella. Payments are already 6 months late and this latest news is utter heartache. I’ll be watching very closely the next few days.

Forex wise, Friday was very quiet for me, I made a quick 10 pips on the initial plunge on GU but apart from that I was a spectator and a bored one at that. I knocked off early as I wasn’t in the frame of mind to watch sideways movement and I wanted to clear my head. Keeping fresh is extremely important to me and my approach to trading.

I’ve had a fair few emails regarding the Zulutrade setup and thanks to Stevetrade, he’s given me a few more options to look at as we are both aware Zulutrade does have it’s weaknesses. I’ll keep everyone up to date for those who are interested in following my trades. November has seen me have incredible highs and incredible lows, to say it’s been tough would be an understatement. However, I feel I am still moving forward with my learning and trading and hopefully I’ll continue to grow into the New Year.

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Busy Bee


Wednesday turned out to be a very busy day with a lot of action in the markets and also with me trying to sort out Zulutrade. I’ve had to stop using the demo account I’ve been running on myfxbook as I never made note of the investor password needed to enable Zulutrade to copy all of my trades. I did plan on just switching between two demo accounts but that turned out to be a real pain and entries were differing between the two. So to keep  Zulutrade as accurate as possible, I’m going to continue to use the demo account which is linked to Zulutrade. I’ll add the account to myfxbook so I can track my progress from the beginning again. It’s a shame to have to stop using the first account as it was beginning to show some percentage gains.

Pip wise, Wednesday wasn’t so good. TUFXP threw up 4 trades and 3 of them ended up being losses! Painful. However, one of them was a rogue trade that I only spotted at the end of trading when I closed my charts and refreshed them. Due to the nature of TUFXP, even the smallest tick change can alter a PTP signal and it’s validity. It was a stern reminder to refresh my charts after a potential setup has formed to eliminate any false trades. Thankfully I managed to claw back 40 pips of the 75 lost using the very method that cost me so dearly last week. It’s ironic that I’ve gone straight back into a winning pattern now that I’m doing it solo again.

My research of Pip Range Charts is going well and I’ve settled on testing a method that I’ve found to be proving very, very handy. I’ve posted a few examples on FF but Pip range charts really aren’t in flavour in the slightest. It’ll be the New Year before I have any worthwhile data but it’s keeping me very interested.

It’s also becoming increasingly clear how much the breakout of the London session affects the New York breakout. London has provided 4 successful trades this week and NY has provided nothing. I’ve almost finished 2009 backtesting and then it’s onto 2008. After that I’ll keep testing until the end of the year and then introduce it in the New Year to help capture some extra pips. This week has obviously been a very good week for breakouts but taking advantage of these weeks are essential.

Thanks to everyone who has shown interest in following my trades on Zulutrade, hopefully by early December I’ll have reached the 30 trades required to show on there. I still need to explain how exactly Zulutrade works so I’ll get round to that over the weekend.

Zulutrade


A tough day today I thought with no real clear opportunities to make some good pips with plenty of reversals occurring after a smallish move.I have noticed however that the morning breakout is going very well of late and also I’ve spotted that when the London box breaks out, the NY session box tends to be very flat and cause false spikes. The NY breakout method has been very quiet of late with either conflicting slopes or the box breaking out in the wrong direction and the main pairs stumbling and struggling with what appears to be major support and resistance. EURUSD has flirted with 1.5000 the last 3 days and each time it’s shied away and retraced downwards.I’m going to do some backtesting using exactly the same strategy but for the London session then I can get a clearer picture of what is happening overall throughout the day.

I’ve setup my zulutrade account and it will take 30 live trades before my signals start appearing on their site as a valid user. By using Zulutrade, it mirrors all of my trades and then places the exact same trades on anyone’s account who is set to follow my signals. The cost to sign up to Zulu is free and then if you decide to follow an individual, it is a 1 pip charge. 0.5 pip goes to Zulu and 0.5 to the signal provider of whom you’re following. I am also looking at other possibilities as I do have a few issues with Zulutrade but I’ll see how it goes over the next few weeks and into the New Year.

Out of the ashes..


Well a lot has certainly happened since I last posted!! Thursday was a complete meltdown on my behalf in the trading room. I had 4 losses in a row and at that point I called it quits with the trading room and the subscription service. In the fallout and aftermath I realised several things. The pressure of having to call trades and have the weight of expectations on my shoulders was simply too much.  I made 2 bad calls in the morning and I was definitely caught out by the sharp move to the downside. If I had persevered the rest of the day would have been fine. Reading over a few transcripts in the room it became clear people were unhappy with how things were going. I even read someone had lost 6 weeks worth of profits in a single morning. Quite how that can happen I’m not too sure since I recommended no more than 2% risk but what’s done is done.However over the weekend I’ve had a lot of time to think and stew over what happened. I have decided to stop being active on FXTT and my trading room. I believe the guys are carrying on with the trading room as it has a good mixture of people there. I am going to be concentrating solely on my trading. A very kind, generous person has stepped forward and we are now working together to make a better future for the both of us. I owe it to him and myself to keep all of my energy and focus on making that happen.

On a positive note I have come to a solution as to how others can use my trades to make some pips and enable me to focus on my own trading without worrying about what others think. I have been running a demo account for over 5 weeks now with trades that I take everyday. My idea is to keep running it and use Zulutrade to monitor my progress. I’ve mentioned Zulutrade before and I think now is the time to move forward with the idea. The benefits are multiple. It’s free for people to use and it really does show whether or not a trader is profitable or not. I have also linked my account with myfxbook. I feel myfxbook offers a greater insight into a trader’s style and success. The number of stats available are fantastic. 

So despite an awful day on Thursday which actually wasn’t that awful when the dust settled, the cloud certainly has a silver lining. I want to continue with my blog as it really is a help to get things off my chest when times get tough. I’ve added the live link to myfxbook so readers can see an instant update of how things are going.

I’ll make a more detailed post about Zulutrade tomorrow and how it can work.

Rollarcoaster


Today has been a real mixture, I’ve had excitement, disappointment and just about every other emotion inbetween. 

I took the first 2 hrs off from trading to visit the Forex Expo that was in town and whilst nothing was outstanding it was a worthwhile visit and I did meet a few interesting people. I returned to find that I’d missed a losing TUFXP trade so at that point I was feeling rather lucky! I was back in time to hedge the MPC minutes and I really wish I’d stayed at the Expo for longer. I suffered my first really awful slippage with my broker and instead of a 25 SL they decided 56 pips was more inline! I was nothing short of fuming and I was totally flustered and ended up messing up the winning part of the trade and eventually closed it for 0 pips. So a 56 pip loss was registered and I was genuinely fuming with myself. I let my emotions get in the way and even allowing for the horrendous slippage, it should have been at worst a -20 pip trade. To add further insult to injury there was a potential TUFXP trade forming and I set an order to open as I was busy doing a few other things in my trading room. I totally missed the fact that the trade had expired and by the time I had realized it had swiftly gone onto it’s SL of 25 pips. So only a few hrs into my trading I was a rather disappointing 80 pips down. By this point I was struggling to keep my emotions in check and ended up taking a nonsense of a trade on USDCAD during the news and I got whipped for 10 pips. Why I took the trade, I’m not sure. This brings me onto my next point; emotions during trading.

Emotion is an extremely big part of intraday trading and today I let myself down by letting them run away from me. Being strong-minded is of paramount importance to me and when I slip up it reminds me that I am still very much learning the art of mastering all emotions. Trading is a psychologically tough game and the desire to close trades early is a very tough urge to resist especially when you’ve had  a rough day, you see pips in the bank and you want to close early to limit any further losses or to repatch the losses already made. However, this is a huge fundamental flaw in the human emotion side of trading. I use strategies that I trust 100% implicitly and I know if I continue to follow the rules and basic principles I will come out on top. Having faith in your strategies is key and trusting it is as equally as important as picking a strategy itself. 

The day did get better in the very last 45 minutes of trading with two winning TUFXP trades. I decided to simply close my broker down and let the trades play out, babysitting the trades would have been nothing but torture as one was a GU short and a EJ long. It isn’t too often you see negative correlation between the two so I was very happy to see both had won. So whilst a loss of 40 pips on the day wasn’t what I was looking for, I came away from the day feeling positive for had it not been for the slippage and a simple error on my behalf it would have been a good day. 

Last but certainly not least, I have opened my very own forum here. It will take a while for the decent content to fill the boards but I have every faith in the members and myself to make it a fantastic place to be. It covers all things forex including winning MT4 strategies and TUFXP strategies. Registration is free and everyone is welcome to join.

Thanks for reading.

Jittery Nerves


Today was a slightly frustrating one in the sense that pips were definitely left behind in the market. My trading room was pretty busy this morning and almost immediately after 10:00 GMT, a trade looked likely to form. In my haste to make my pending trade aware to other people in the room, I set the wrong entry for my trade. This hasn’t happened before but neither have I been trying to place a trade and announce a trade. I had the entry 3 pips to low and those 3 pips were the difference between a loss and a win. Whilst it was very frustrating, it also settled my nerves. I now know the process of calling trades and keeping people up to date with pending orders. I did manage to redeem myself with a winning trade on EURUSD for +14. I decided to close this early as I wasn’t particularly happy with the way EU was resisting to go higher, everyone in the room managed to close for at least 12.5 pips, some 13 pips. It turned out to be a good call as the highest it went to was +14.7, 0.3 short of full scalp. This is the beauty of having a live trading room as I can manage my trade with other people and make them aware of reasons behind my thought process. So a breakeven day on my new method but it could have been a lot better, but I am a patient and disciplined person, I will not chase the market, I’ll wait for the market to come to me. I am compiling a nice Q&A for everyone who joins my trading room and with the help of everyone already there, it should help newcomers settle in quickly. 

TUFXP decided to play ball and again GBPUSD gained +28 pips ( 3 better entry). It transpired that not everyone got the corresponding signal and shortly afterwards, IQFeed went down yet again for over 23 minutes. My constant emailing to IQFeed has managed to bring about a new feed though, one which I can use when FXCM feed goes down, so at least I am getting some return on my $80 feed. TUFXP themselves though have still yet to reply, even after 5 emails regarding this matter. A truly shocking display of customer support.

I’ll add my trade management post sometime tomorrow.

Friendly Welcome


Well today was the first day of my own trading room and it was a nice way to start the week.  Whilst the method I am detailing has a day off on Monday, it was a good opportunity to get everyone together and go over any questions that the members had. The overall feeling was a positive one and from speaking to most of the members individually, everyone shared the same consensus that it’s a fine idea and they were looking forward to watching the method get to work. There seems to be a nice collective mix of beginners and more experienced traders and there were several members helping each other out with questions regarding various spread betting companies and brokers.

My TUFXP method had three trades today, once again GBPUSD proving the most solid pair with a straightforward 25 pips in the morning part of the London session. EURJPY also triggered a trade 10 minutes after the GU trade and it briefly went past +10 before hovering around breakeven until the US news at 13.30 GMT. Just before the news, a potential short setup occurred and it was close enough to be triggered during the news release. The news sent us in and during the process sent the long out for a loss of 25 pips. The short went to +23 before retracing all the way back to breakeven and even up to -9 pips. However, gravity set in and it eventually made it’s full scalp of 25 pips.

Most of my day flew by with answering everyone’s questions and I can already see the week’s flying past even quicker than before. I have been busy working on another new strategy that’s been whirling away in my mind for the last few weeks and it’s always been something that interested me. I still have  a lot of research to do and testing but initial feelings are that it looks incredibly straight forward and successful. 

There are a few aspects of trade management I want to touch on over the next few days so look out for that..

Thanks to everyone for a fantastic start to the week in the room. See you all tomorrow.