Posts Tagged ‘ NFP ’

Too Cautious


Well NFP has just blasted off and a set of confusing figures were released. A loss of 125,000 jobs but a fairly big drop in unemployment to 9.5% when 9.7% was forecasted. These sorts of deviations usually confuse the market and EURJPY which is usually my prefered pair to trade NFP initially went up and quite quickly reversed  and is now slowly rising. Interesting week ahead next week I think..

A bit of a disappointing end to the week TUFXP wise and for the 2nd day running, my filter method came worse off. Whilst CM doesn’t trade NFP days, I’m willing to as I personally don’t think the markets quieten down until the afternoon session. A long signalled and it went against the 50 SMA trend so I declined to take it but said I’d take it if it went to -10 as the risk was 16 pips; my reasoning being a 6 pip risk for a gain of 30 was outstanding value and smart money management. It went all the way down to -14 before going all the way up to scalp! I guess I didn’t have full conviction in my thought process as I dithered around the buy button before refusing it.

A 2nd long then signalled and again the 50 SMA didn’t agree until the price had blown through entry and was well over half way to scalp which was just shy of 1.5200. Price took a pretty sharp u-turn off 1.5200 and gave me short signal and this time everything lined up….except someone forgot to tell the price to drop to scalp instead of SL! Whilst disappointing, I’m certainly not going to abandon my extra indicators as I think they have real merit. So a bit of a faltering end to the week but still happy enough with how things are going, my own EURUSD trade came home nicely last night for +50.

If anyone wants to join my trading room, you’re more than welcome, just leave a comment or send me an email and I’ll do the rest. Have a good weekend everyone and catch you all on Monday where I’ll just be trading the morning session as the US takes a holiday for Independence Day.

2010
07/02
CATEGORY
Forex
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Damage Limitation


After the morning drubbing it was always going to be a case of damage limitation and that thankfully happened. A couple of nice trades on GBPUSD when it finally broke down managed to bring back some element of sensibility to proceedings. 1.5900 proved too hard to pass and GBPUSD is now firmly stuck between 1.5950 and 1.5900. I imagine the release of the NFP numbers will shake things up a little. The BoE caused zero impact and was a non event entirely.

My first week of live results on Cash-master continues to go well and it’s certainly attracting plenty of interest, no doubt caused by the good start, I can only hope it continues in the same form. The results can be seen here.

If you haven’t yet voted on the trading weakness poll, don’t forget to do so, it’s on the right hand side of the blog about half way down. The more votes it gets, the bigger the picture can be established. I’ve also updated the recommended blogs which contain some very interesting reading.

That’s all for now, might be a quiet day until NFP rolls round so it might be a long day..

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2010
01/08
CATEGORY
Forex
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Developments


Another solid day with just under 4% gained overall. TUFXP was pinging trades off left, right and centre early in the day with at least 5 potential setups. GBPUSD finally obliged with a triggered trade and after a nervous 20/30 minutes it rammed home. TUFXP really is firing on all cylinders of late and it’s times like these that advantage needs to be taken.

I have finished all of my research on the London breakout and I will be adding this to my portfolio after the New Year. It’s very consistent and it gets the day off to a nice start when it wins. Combining GBPUSD London breakout and EURUSD New York breakout really makes for impressive reading.

I had an interesting email off a member on FF regarding a few other signal providing services so it’s yet more information for me to look at. I haven’t yet clicked with Collective 2 but I’m working with support to sort out a few niggles. Unless I go banzai tomorrow, I doubt I’ll make it to 30 trades on Zulutrade until Monday at the earliest. 

I also have something very exciting developing over the weekend and I’m hopeful everything will turn out as well as I hope. Keep your eyes peeled for an announcement this weekend.

NFP tomorrow and it looks yet another optimistic figure and I wouldn’t be entirely surprised to see it miss by some way. It’ll be a good one to watch anyway. The ECB press conference caused a God almighty spike in both directions this afternoon and I was only too happy to be sitting out and watching. Anyway, I have some more work to do so I best carry on. 

John.

2009
12/03
CATEGORY
Forex
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The Oracle


Today was always going to be an interesting day with the potential US unemployment rates rising above 10% for the first time since the 1980’s. During the morning and early part of the London session, things were very, very slow. A lot of sideways movement in anticipation of the NFP release. Whilst watching a sideways market is incredibly boring, I do have a strategy that I personally think works best in a tight market. I’ve only told a select few about this method but I’ve been live testing it for over 4 weeks now and the results are nothing short of staggering. It is simplicity in itself and is as simple as a strategy can get. I haven’t re-invented the wheel by any stretch but I have made myself a very decent strategy which is so far going like the clappers.

I ended up hedging my usual pair, EURJPY, and my own personal thoughts were it would go short as I felt NFP would miss it’s expectation and I felt -200k was a more realistic target. However, I am by no means a fundamentalist and my safest option is to always have both options open. I set my TP to just above the daily R1 and I managed to close out the news trade for +100.

It’s been a crazy week with all the major news releases providing plenty of opportunity for profiting and I’m glad I was able to cash in on a few of those chances. Next week is a quiet one, economic wise and I’ll be focusing on my TUFXP method and my other two strategies to bring home the pips.

Speaking of TUFXP, the creator, Keith Cotterill, has released his new strategy! He’s made his usual sales pitch on a dedicated website and he claims of wonderful things and free trials etc etc. It’s slightly funny that it’s nothing to do with TUFXP and it begs the question why there has never been an official strategy for TUFXP. Anyway, safe to say I will not be purchasing anything from KC as I’ve been thoroughly disappointed with the after sales support, lack of answers and general tardiness from the team at TUFXP. Do I regret buying TUFXP? Not in the slightest as I’m making it work for me but I know of many people who have given up and sold their copies 2nd hand.

Looking forward to a nice weekend and recharging ready for a fresh week.

2009
11/06
CATEGORY
Forex
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End of Month..


Well October is over trading wise and it’s been a cracking month. I certainly feel like I’m settling into a nice routine of late and it’s certainly paying dividends results wise. I stepped into Forex back in late June and I thought how hard can this be? I always thought horse racing was tough but Forex takes everything to a new level; discipline, emotions, money management. Everything is multiplied. However, I really think the more time I’m experiencing the markets, the more comfortable I’m feeling. My thirst for knowledge is pretty big and if I’m not trading I’m either reading some articles or doing some research on my strategies. I’m starting to understand each pair I trade and how they correlate to each other. I’ll never stop learning but I can honestly say I am a long way on since I started a few months ago.

Next week is a monster week for news releases with NFP, GBP cash rate, US Fed release and Aus RBA cash rate. GBP is expected to increase their QE and Australia is expected to raise their rate for a 2nd month. Any deviations should cause quite an impact and I’ll hopefully be positioned well enough to take advantage if anything is wide of the mark. NFP is always entertaining. One thing I haven’t managed to work out is why the NFP can be so far wide of the mark when the ADP NFP is released two days prior to it. Surely that should give a leading indication? Answers on a postcard please…

Enjoy your weekend, I’ve got the Abu Dhabi F1 to watch, should be fantastic!

2009
10/30
CATEGORY
Forex
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