Too Cautious

Well NFP has just blasted off and a set of confusing figures were released. A loss of 125,000 jobs but a fairly big drop in unemployment to 9.5% when 9.7% was forecasted. These sorts of deviations usually confuse the market and EURJPY which is usually my prefered pair to trade NFP initially went up and quite quickly reversed  and is now slowly rising. Interesting week ahead next week I think..

A bit of a disappointing end to the week TUFXP wise and for the 2nd day running, my filter method came worse off. Whilst CM doesn’t trade NFP days, I’m willing to as I personally don’t think the markets quieten down until the afternoon session. A long signalled and it went against the 50 SMA trend so I declined to take it but said I’d take it if it went to -10 as the risk was 16 pips; my reasoning being a 6 pip risk for a gain of 30 was outstanding value and smart money management. It went all the way down to -14 before going all the way up to scalp! I guess I didn’t have full conviction in my thought process as I dithered around the buy button before refusing it.

A 2nd long then signalled and again the 50 SMA didn’t agree until the price had blown through entry and was well over half way to scalp which was just shy of 1.5200. Price took a pretty sharp u-turn off 1.5200 and gave me short signal and this time everything lined up….except someone forgot to tell the price to drop to scalp instead of SL! Whilst disappointing, I’m certainly not going to abandon my extra indicators as I think they have real merit. So a bit of a faltering end to the week but still happy enough with how things are going, my own EURUSD trade came home nicely last night for +50.

If anyone wants to join my trading room, you’re more than welcome, just leave a comment or send me an email and I’ll do the rest. Have a good weekend everyone and catch you all on Monday where I’ll just be trading the morning session as the US takes a holiday for Independence Day.

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