Tricky but sweet

Forex. Only a small word but it conjures up so many thoughts and feelings at once.

Today was a real test for TUFXP and depending on which method you followed, you could be happy or sad. A short was signalled shortly before 7AM and everything lined up except the stochs which were showing oversold. As the stop was the maximum of 35, I decided to wait for a better entry. Using the indicator Steve passed on to me gave me a rough idea of a good entry. I thought 1.5056 was ideal and called it in my trading room and entered when the price drifted upwards. Whilst technically it wasn’t a trade for my new filter method, the simple risk:reward was too good to pass up and considering the standard method is going well, I thought go for it. I risked 17 after spread to win a potential  40, a bit better than 35 risk and 20 reward!!!

I’ve highlighted the buy signal as well to show how it looked in real-time. It barely missed being a qualifier for the filter method but as I was already short, I had no intentions of taking it. GU went pretty close to stop, in fact it would have stopped out all 30 stops as used by CM. I make that 3 this month which have been losers using 30 and 3 winners if using 35. Perhaps I should email him telling him that he’s missing 150 pips..

When GU finally decided to pick a direction, a short PTP came up that fitted the bill perfectly for the filter method and it was at such a good entry, I was able to move my stop to breakeven on the first trade to 1.5056 and enter this trade at 1.5035. I closed the first trade for +32 and the second for +18 as I was keen to bank the gains. However, sure enough, GU tanked through the scalps easily enough.

So another great day and the momentum keeps going into July. After a rough week in the middle of June, things have certainly picked up.

Steve has said it’s fine for me to distribute the indicator which will help with TUFXP so if anyone is interested, let me know.


Keep on rolling

Well the winning run continued today making it six on the bounce for TUFXP for the second time this month. It’s certainly bumped up this months figures nicely. I’ve been chatting with a friend from last year and he’s shown me an excellent indicator for use with MT4 and I think it’ll be a huge help when trading with TUFXP, big thanks to Steve!

I also managed a win on one of my  own strategies and it’s been a while coming as June hasn’t been the sweetest month for it but as May was solid and with a win last night, I’m certainly not complaining. It’s nice when a full house comes  in. Keep the votes coming for both polls please guys, so far it looks like around 20-25 people would be interested in an EA for TUFXP if the price is right which is great news.

Graham at Cash-master has agreed to run another trial of my e-book so it’ll be interesting to see how it fares this time round. I’m opening a second account and will be matching every trade so everyone has a clear idea how it’s performing.

I’ve got a cracking headache so I’ll stop here, hopefully Graham, my new partner in crime at blogging, will make a post in the next couple of days introducing himself and what he wants to achieve.

Off and running

Well a new week is already under way and a nice winning start to the week. It was a nice little trade and I managed to get out for +23 instead of the usual +20 as I entered 3 better. When the trade originally triggered, the stochs were crossing. However, when the candle pulled back, they were no longer crossing. One of the few disadvantages of using a slightly lagging indicator I suppose. Given they were crossing in real-time when the PTP triggered, I decided it would class as a qualified trade. Thankfully, the next few candles confirmed the stochs and the trade was definitely on. It’s always nice to get the win out-of-the-way on a Monday and really makes the week more enjoyable as you’re not playing catch-up from the word go.

Disappointed with the football result but not a massive football fan so won’t waste too much sleep on it! However, did you see Webber’s crash? Slap me sideways, that was a massive shunt and could so easily have ended in tears, luckily he walked away with nothing more than a sore head.

The reason for the poll about the TUFXP EA is that I am currently working with two programmers who feel confident enough that they can produce a working EA based on TUFXP signals. It’s still very much in the early stages and will take a few weeks to work on but we’re all hopeful of something positive coming from it. I’ve 99% completed my update of my e-book also so everyone who asked for the updated version should receive it in the next day or so. A couple of independent websites have picked it up (I’m not sure how) and have asked for copies so they can run some live testing which I’m more than happy to do as it will generate a lol of free publicity to the blog!

A Lot Like Golf

Trading is a lot like golf. You’re probably thinking I’ve lost the plot and the strange water down-under has turned me into a babbling fool. You might be right but hear me out..

I used to play golf a lot and when I was a teenager I had aspirations of being a touring professional and I managed to get my handicap down to +1 (below 0), I also majored in it at University. Playing for University and County meant there were occasions when the pressure was really on to perform; a clutch putt or a great iron from trouble. However, I always had a tendency to over think things. I’d say to myself, ‘okay make par here and the next two holes are easy birdie holes and then par in.’ Speak to any professional golfer and they’ll tell you that thinking ahead is a game killer. I’d try to force things and more often than not I’d end up with a worse score than my plan had allowed. I remember when I was 16/17 actually filling in a blank scorecard before a competition or match and then checking it throughout my round!!

What on earth does filling in a scorecard have to do with trading? Well, quite a lot. I have several spreadsheets with past results and current performance and I frequently use these as predictions for upcoming weeks/months. When these predictions don’t come to fruition I feel disappointed and wonder why my plan isn’t working. That is precisely my trouble; thinking ahead. My Dad used to try to drill into me to take one shot at a time and only focus on that particular shot, and let the round come to me. Whenever he caddied for me, I frequently played some of my best golf. So, from now on I’m going to do my best to focus on each trade as an individual event and try to not worry about how my week/month is going. It all boils down to staying calm and not rushing under pressure. It’s obviously a lot easier said than done but having a ‘one trade at a time’ mentality should help me keep on the straight and narrow and away from my trigger happy finger!

Weekend Calling

A final update before the weekend, I’ve decided to call it quits as I’m clearly not ‘gelling’ with the market. I thought I’d pop downstairs and see what my wife and daughter were up to as GU was still hovering around 1.4960-1.4970. I came back literally 7 mins later and all hell had broken loose! I missed the trade I wanted to get my official +20 but such is life sometimes and zero is better than a loss I guess and I don’t want to try to chase results. Have a good weekend and hopefully your week has been a little more successful than mine…

New Blogger

Yesterday was a massive day in terms of workload and by midnight I was completely exhausted, 18 hr days aren’t such a good idea afterall! A win yesterday for TUFXP pretty early on but interestingly it wouldn’t have been a qualifier using the rules I’m testing. The stochs were indicating oversold and the price literally clipped entry and went all the way to -19 before dropping enough to hit scalp. Maybe that’s an avenue to explore by going in at a much better price and therefore massively increasing risk:reward. A ‘perfect’ setup never occurred so it was a blank day, there have been a couple of days like that from testing it. I managed to get April and May finished and the results are very encouraging. A valid setup came today and whilst if you took the TESS scalp you’d of had +18 (after spread) I didn’t get out as I always make sure I get my +20 after spread so only b/e on this trade.  On this occasion its cost me but hopefully there will be another signal at some point today that I can take advantage of. I’d like to finish the week on a good note after a very dodgy start so I’m hoping the forex gods give me a pass! I’d be interested to hear from users to know whether they take the scalp for +18 or go for 20 after spread. I was speaking to a friend in the trading room and he enters as per TESS so theoretically, he could end up in an invalid trade as TESS goes off bid price, not ask, which makes all the difference when buying. Another example of when looking at backtesting how this would be a questionable trade. When watching live, the 20 EMA was solid green.

Lol, no sooner do I get stopped out at b/e when it rushes all the way back up! Might be telling me something..

I’m pleased to announce that there will be a new blogger joining me on this blog. His name is Graham Coia and has been around the block a few times! He’ll be testing different forex systems independently and giving his findings right here. There will be no affiliate links and rest assured I’m sure he’ll do a great job.

The Setup

I’ve been playing around with TESS the last few hours after watching the daily overview video that TUFXP put out. A couple of things caught my attention. Firstly, I love the after timing of avoiding the first trade as the stop was ‘too small’ and common sense would have told you to make it bigger, he said he’d put it at 30 pips or so. Convenient, very convenient.  But I did take something useful from it. I’ve added a 50 SMA to my 5 min chart and also the Stochastics indicator available within TESS. I’ve then gone back to start of June and noted if everything lines up when a trade has triggered as per the normal rules. Currently, using 100% extension for stop and capping it at 35 pips if any bigger, I am currently +90 for the month after spread.  An okay return but not exactly setting the house on fire given last week was +100! I observed something that I think will be a winner. I disregarded any inperfect setups and only took what I considered a perfect setup. After spread the total is +200, quite a difference! Monday was a double loss if following the usual rules but by using the 50 SMA and stochs, you’d have missed the two losers and found a winner. I’ll demonstrate those examples here: (Click on picture to enlarge)

I classed this as invalid as %K isn’t leading %D. For it to be valid, the blue line (%K) needs to be above and clear of %D.

This was the second loser:(Click on picture to enlarge)

A stochastic oscillator is a momentum indicator and can define overbought and oversold areas. The red lines represent this. Beneath 2o represents oversold and above 80 represents overbought. On this trade whilst the 50 SMA is showing red, you can clearly see the lines on the stochastic being beneath 20. Whilst there is a possibility it could have gone lower, it wasn’t an ideal entry.

By adopting a ‘perfect’ setup, you’d have missed the two losers and have got a nice winner:(Click on picture to enlarge)

I think this is something I’ll definitely pursue further and I’ll go back and test April and May using the same theory. Am I clutching at indicators to eradicate losing trades? Maybe, but there is no harm in trying to improve a strategy and I think there is something there. I’ll report on April and May results when I’ve finished. And last but not least, I’ve kept a record of every stop value for each trade this month and the average has been 28.9 pips. So whilst not an ideal risk:reward ratio, it’s not too far gone either and a winning percentage over 65% would see positive equity.

Update: I’ve just finished May and pretty impressed!! Standard results were +165 pips after spread. By going for the ‘perfect’ setup, you’d have gained +323 pips after spread with just 1 losing trade in the whole month!! Staggering stuff. I’ll crack on with April when I get a chance.