If?

An interesting 24 hrs since I last posted not least with the emergency budget kicking GBPUSD into life and sending it north bound. I haven’t an ounce of politics in me but from reading some reviews and speaking to my parents, it seems the budget has been relatively well received.

I had a few comments on the position of my daily S2, as according to their charts it was completely different. I checked myself and I found that my daily pivots are being calculated off midnight, local time. It seems odd that prices should obey wrong levels but recently I have definitely noticed prices reversing or stalling around key areas which are shown by TESS. Here is a picture of today’s chart. Price has clearly reversed off the indicated R1:

I also noticed Cash-master has been using a fixed 30 pip stop this week which avoided the double loss on Monday. He’s posted his reasons but the rules he stated on his blog clearly show 100% stop. If using a 30 stop today, you’d be out for +20 and done for the day. However, if using the correct 100% rule, you’d be only +8 with a possible trade to go as the first one lost for -12 and second one won for +20. 

Whilst on the subject of TUFXP, I thought I’d raise a question about a theory I’ve been testing. It first got mentioned to me at least 6  months ago by a member of FXTT who has since left but around 4 weeks ago, for some reason, I looked  into further. I’m sure we’ve all created our own settings and backtested them and more often than not  found a rather large negative figure at the bottom! Well, why not trade the reverse? So all the losers are actually winners and the winners are losers. I’ve done just this and have been tracking it’s performance for June and currently it’s up +150 pips and May was +200 pips. It uses a 1:1 risk reward so the stops are not gigantic and it uses a 2 hr window. It doesn’t use obscure parameters and is to the best of my knowledge, curve-free. Could it just be a fluke or is there some merit to trading the reverse? Let’s find out..

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    • Lisa
    • June 23rd, 2010

    Yeh, it’s strange, my R1 is showing at 1.4887 as opposed to yours at 1.4878.Thankfully I got out as it was nearing this point with a nice 34 pips! 🙂

    • Julie Hawkins
    • June 23rd, 2010

    Hi John
    I use the 30 pip stop & after a hairy 2 hours got out with +20 pips,my R1 also 14887

    • Hi Julie,

      Would be interesting to see your figures for the month using a fixed 30 SL. Well done on the win.

    • julie
    • June 23rd, 2010

    Thanks John, I’m still new to this & after missing all the good trades in May,its good to get a win. I nearly went for the 12 stop loss,but stuck to the system.

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