Mixed Signals

An interesting morning, but not for the right reasons concerning TUFXP. A long signalled at 6.40AM and looked in trouble from the get go. -26 chalked up pretty quickly. During the sharp downswing, a short PTP signalled and qualified 5 pips above the SL of the long. Once out of the long, I decided to take the short as it was still within 3 bars of the signal and I was able to get in 1 pip better than entry. It looked likely to win but 1.4560 proved impassable and it bounced right up. A third signal arrived in the form of a long which won so it will be interesting to see how CM played this. By my reckoning the short was a valid trade as the losing long had finished and everything else lined up. I’d love to hear from some fellow TUFXP users. So a pretty ugly -61 pips for TUFXP on my books and a very up/down week so far. It seems I have missed the golden patch of winners but it couldn’t last forever!

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    • Lisa
    • June 10th, 2010

    Like you, I took the first trade but decided to leave the second since it had already started by the time the first trade had been taken out.

    I then took the third trade which won.

    It’s a hard one when this happens as I can see what you are saying about it being a valid trade.It will be interesting to see what CM says.

    Following CM’S strategy, I took another trade this morning at about 9.35. This was a loser.At the moment it does seem like one step forward and two steps back at times.

    Having looked at CM’s record for the past month, it looks like he has only made about 130 pips for the last 5 weeks (since 5th May). It’s not great but at least it’s not a loss. I am just hoping that things get better soon.

    Fingers crossed!

    • marco
    • June 10th, 2010

    I really do not want to rain on anyones parade .But in my humble opinion with this extremly poor risk to reward ratio this system will not be sustainable over the long run.Just do the maths and see how long the recovery period is on a few cosecutive losing days or weeks.
    You have to let your winners run .
    Thanks
    marco

    • Dawn
    • June 10th, 2010

    Hi John,

    Regarding the second trade that you thought was valid, I know CM is very strict about only being in one trade at a time – even though this was so close.

    Yes, such a shame that that wonderful winning streak is over. Do any of the more experienced traders out there know if this is probably likely to be just a temporary setback? By the law of averages, each day should have at least a 50/50 chance of winning, before we even look at any indicators, although as Marco says, just a few losing days can wipe out any gains that are made that week.

    Just wondered Marco what sort of results you get when you let your trades run? I suppose you obviously get no profits at all some days, but then on others you gain nicely, which as you said before help to pay for the days that lose.

    Fingers crossed for a better day tomorrow!
    Dawn

    • marco
    • June 10th, 2010

    Dawn ,
    i was -30 monday +100 tuesday +24 yesterday and -23 today .+71 for the week as i finish trading today.Iuse the trailing stop of 4 bars on the five minute chart and i wait for a five and ten minute sigal to confirm ,otherwise i do not take trade.
    so in effect im still trading GG but with all indicators moving in the same direction and one win and i stop ,6-10am.
    There is still a lot of merit in the old system especially when it comes to trailing .And as long as one trades in specific time zones and does not trade beyond two losing trades there will be no danger of overtrading or trading kamikaze ,as we did in the good old days.
    hope this helps
    marco

    • Some interesting ideas, Marco. Do you have any further results?

      • Steve
      • June 14th, 2010

      Has anyone tried closing trades out in stages, i.e a third at 20 pips a third at 40 and let the rest run with a trailing stop?

      • Hi Steve,

        I don’t think so. The problem would be if the trade never reaches 40 pips. By closing out in stages, it dramactically reduces your profit if the further targets aren’t hit.

    • Dawn
    • June 10th, 2010

    Thanks Marco, that really helps – I will give it a try.
    Have a great weekend!
    Dawn

    • julie
    • June 10th, 2010

    Same here,I hope thats not the end of the golden run. 3 wins ,3 losses since I returned from holiday,after backtesting trades I missed I was quite optimistic.
    I realised today I really need to let them run too. A bit difficult as I’m at work,but times like this make you re think if it works out long term?
    Not sure about the above or below DP which Neil mentions in the overviews, as this is 50/50 too.

    Julie

    • Hi Julie,

      I’m not sure if the DP has revelance either, I’ve not seen any concrete evidence to support that idea. However, I am monitoring the position for my own results purposes.

      Best of luck.

    • mike
    • June 10th, 2010

    hi

    for what its worth my two pennyies worth.

    trading is long term – just because had bad week – its nothing – keep with the system

    had a spare afternoon and went back to 22/2/10 – the earliest tess charts would allow me and recorded every trade from 6am to 10am that qualified using current cm settings – average and parabolic same colour – risking 5% per trade – taking every trade that qualified in that period regardless if already in a trade – using stop loss as indicated by tess – compounding after every trade – starting from £1000 – the profit would be now £4172,80 and the largest drawdown would of been 23%

    • Hi Mike,

      You mention CM settings but also the stop indicated by TESS. Does this mean you use the stop suggested by TESS or you have a cut-off like CM uses? And this is only 6-10AM and not the afternoon session?

      Either way, over 300% growth in 4 months is very, very good.

    • Dawn
    • June 10th, 2010

    Thanks Mike,
    I love people who make positive comments!
    I know you need to look at the big picture and the results that you have found are very encouraging. Thanks for sharing – must have taken you ages!
    Happy trading!
    Dawn

    • mike
    • June 11th, 2010

    Seems trading 6am to 10am and then 13.00 to 16.00 produces a profit £2782 and if you remove the afternnon session your profit increases to £4170 – therefore afternoon session seems to produces a lost.

    Take profit is 20 pips per cm
    entry criteria is the same per cm – ma and parabolic green for buy – red for sale when trade qualifies
    risking 5% per trade with a variable stop loss therefore variable £ per pip on each trade
    ie
    if tess shows stop loss of 40 your £ per pip will be
    Bank * 5% / 40

    as with all backtesting – results shown are under perfect conditions

    if anyone wants the spreadsheet – email me at m_michaels@hotmail.co.uk and ill send it to you.

    • marco
    • June 11th, 2010

    John,
    I am forward testing this at the moment and will keep you in touch with the results.If the past is anything to go by they should be good.
    As i said before its not my intention to rain on anyones parade or be negative and what Mike says is very positive and encouraging .But to pay out 30 (33 with spread)to get 20 back is a bad business proposition and a 23% drawdown might not seem like much ,until you are in it.
    The earliest GG CM system was always best as it let its winners run and he would often have days of +100 which would cover losing days and make recovery much quicker.
    By using the 5/10 min charts to confirm the trade is just extra insurance ,and letting ones trades follow the trail will bring greater pips .Otherwise everything else is the same ,two losers and you stop trading.
    GG was always a great system and made a lot of us decent money with little drawdown.What was missing was a safety net or rule in case we had to many losing trades in a row .So all i am doing is combing the best of both systems to make the greatest amount of pips .
    I apologise if i have come over at all negative as that was not my intention.
    marco

    • Sounds like a good idea, Marco, will watch your results very keenly!!

      Such a shame FXTT has gone to nothing.

    • Dawn
    • June 11th, 2010

    Oh no Marco, I didn’t mean that you are negative! The comments that you made need to be said and I totally agree with you, as unlike you, I’m still not in profit this week after all the losses we’ve had.It is very annoying when you have losses to make up and you come out of a winning trade at 20 pips only to watch it gain many more – sometimes 100+ as you say.

    • marco
    • June 11th, 2010

    I agree John ,great shame about FXTT.It would be fantastic if we could put a new trading room up where we could all trade together from 6-10am .It makes a very big difference .
    marco

    • You can join me in my trading room on Skype if you like. Just add ‘thedubaitrader’ on skype. I’m there most days.

    • marco
    • June 11th, 2010

    Thats great John ,thanks mate
    marco

    • Steve
    • June 14th, 2010

    dubaitrader :
    Hi Steve,
    I don’t think so. The problem would be if the trade never reaches 40 pips. By closing out in stages, it dramactically reduces your profit if the further targets aren’t hit.

    The idea is as you make the first 20 pips you take profit on a third, and move stop to b/e, then as you make next 20 you move stop another 20 into profit taking off another third and then trail from then on.

    • What happens if it never makes 40+? I think a thorough test would be needed to determine if it’d be more profitable.

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