Destined

It’s been a slow and very unspectacular day today with all of my gains coming before 9 AM UK time. I’ve briefly glanced at charts just to make sure I’m not missing the mother of all setups but alas, it has been very calm and boring. Still, if boring means making 6-7% I’m all for it!

I think I’m destined to never get a successful news trade with SNW. Two worthwhile reports today with the GBP CPI y/y and US home sales. CPI missed my trigger by 0.1 but reacted perfectly to the release of 0.1 worse than expected. Then up next was the US existing home sales. I had to go back to Sept 08 to find when it last deviated so little from expectations. It meant a further no trade and with only two further possibilities this week left for a decent trade, time is very much running out. Professional news traders must surely experience the longest dry spells ever! A guy on FPA (forex peace army) who trades it for a living hasn’t had a trade in over 3 weeks! Yikes!

Still, it’s been a profitable day and I’d take them every single day so I guess I’m just a tad frustrated with the news thing as I really was expecting some action during the trial.

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    • Chris
    • March 23rd, 2010

    Good to see your turning things around.

    I definitely think there is a decision to be made regarding the TUFXP method you have struggled with lately.

    I personally gave up with it a long time ago (this is the GG method, not sure if your is slightly different?) as even though its undoubtedly profitable in the long term, I always found that the edge was so small that long runs of draw down were a certainty. While its important to look at the long term picture at all times, its equally important to consider the psychology of trading a method, and a method with long losing runs will take its toll on anyone.

    I remember following the trial of your strats on CM and the scalping method in particular seemed to be making a fairly consistent 2-4% per day. Has the form continued even during this rough patch for your trading? If so, 2-4% per day is all you ever need.

    Personally I think people can get too caught up in chasing big numbers (not necessarily saying this is you) as opposed to consistency. If you have consistency, you can stake that much higher (via compounding) that it makes the loss of your higher net “pip gain” irrelevant.

    Just my observations, not meant to be critical in any way, would be interested to hear back from you on this point.

    • I find people reguarly get carried away with pip totals. I only work in %’s in terms of trading. 20 pips to me might be the same as 200 pips to the next, it all depends on how well you manage your position size. I take zero notice of systems proclaiming 1000’s of pips as more often than not, they come with massive SLs which means their actual gain isn’t that hot.

      Scalping continues to go well but I’m also looking into other areas with a similar method as the scalping method requires a lot of attention and I do miss a fair few setups by not looking every 5 mins or so.

    • Austin
    • March 23rd, 2010

    John, good to read your blog – always very honest and revealing. Two things that have come out for me over the last month:
    Firstly you need to stick to your trading plan, so great that you have it stuck to the side of your PC. No deviating from it, or “freestyling” – stick to it, even if it has losses, as you have done your research and know that it will win over time; and
    Secondly, if I were you, I would stick to only one or two methods which were/are profitable, such as your Dubai Strategies Scalping method and make money doing that. It seems that you have that, plus GG settings, plus SNW, plus horse racing, plus, plus. They say that a fox can do lots of things well and a hedgehog can do one thing extremely well. I always believe that it is best to be a master at one thing than competent at lots.

    I have every faith in you, so keep going and keep smiling.

    Good luck with the plan and happy pipping 😉

    Austin

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