Excuses

So, excuses are starting to wear thin for me as to why I continue to struggle along and post loss after loss. No matter what outlook I take, the fact is I’m in a bad position with no sign of light. I’ve introduced a new strategy this week after 12 weeks of testing and monitoring it very closely. I felt the time was right. WRONG! I walk straight into 2 losses for -50 and also a losing TUFXP trade. Awesome start to the week, yet again.

After the NFP which didn’t work out how I’d expected with me being in a couple of TUFXP trades which were already in loss pre release, the news simply hammered me and ended a poor day. I switched off early but upon checking this morning, it looks like I missed a EURUSD trade for 50 pips.

Where I go from here, I’m not sure, whatever I try doesn’t seem to work no matter what positive spin I put on it, I think the end of this month will be decision time. Sorry for the negative posts, I’m sure they are about as much fun/interesting to read as watching a wall of paint dry out.

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    • Terrence
    • March 8th, 2010

    Greetings again. Every now and then, I check up on your blog to see how you are doing. The last time I checked you were going through a bad period. However, you persevered, showed guts and determination and kept going with moderate success. Well done! It takes courage to do what you are doing..

    John, I have found that the best use of myfxbook.com is to analyse my trades real time, view statistical data and detailed picture of my performance with the inclusion of items that I would never have thought of. Analysing this data has improved my traded. I mention this because a quick glance at your myfxbook. com account shows that you are successful on 52% of all trades. 52%! Do you know what this means! The majority of successful traders are not profitable on 52% of their trades, yet they still make money. The source of your problems seems to me, to be risk/money management. You need to maximise your wins and minimise your losses. Analyse every successful trade.. Ask yourself, how could I have gotten more out of this trade. What made this trade successful.. do a post mortem examination on every winning and loosing trade.

    52% success rate means that you are on the right track. Sort out your money management and you will be OK. All the best and God bless you.

    • Paul
    • March 8th, 2010

    John Im confused a bit, GG gave you a great write up 72% up in 5 weeks, im reading your blog and your having a bad time, am I missing something here, if its your dubai strat thats winning why arent you keeping to that, 72% in 5 weeks is bloody good, 720% in a year, £5k turns into £35k+ if im not mistaken.

    Paul

    • Hi Paul,

      I can see how it’s confusing! It’s confusing me. I also trade TUFXP along with my Dubai Strategies, unfortunately TUFXP has let me down as well as some poor discipline and trade management.

      February would of been a positive month for Dubai strategies alone, so it does make hard reading seeing I’m in a loss.

    • Steve Spray
    • March 8th, 2010

    It’s also worth noting (in respect of TUFXP and momentum based trades) that you are employing a strategy of ‘selling a new low’ or ‘buying a new high’ – statistically this presents problems – that a good deal of the time you’ll be entering trades which are bound to spend a good deal of time underwater. In my experience these kinds of trades almost always pullback to some extent – the net result is that you can spend a great deal of time looking at what I call ‘red ink’ – where the trades are underwater most of their lifespan. This grinds against even the most positive mindset.

    My personal belief is that we must investigate strategies which we enter on ‘pullbacks’ rather than ‘breakouts’. I noticed a long time ago that GBPUSD always makes pullbacks between 18 and 35 pips even in the hard trends. This would also be going along with Terrence’s comments regarding making winners slightly larger whilst hopefully making losers a bit smaller.

    Another stat which amazes me about GBPUSD is how reliable it is in making its average daily range. Most days is does a range of 150 pips. Today for example it’s 160. It does it’s normal daily range on over 80% of days (in my opinion). Surely this stat alone could give us a pretty big edge if we were to find a decent entry method?

    Steve.

    • Andy M, UK.
    • March 8th, 2010

    Looks like some good advice in these comments. I hope you don’t give up and continue to persevere but that’s easy for me to say when it’s your money that’s traded.

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